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Marko Helwich

Durational effects and non-smooth semi-Markov models in life insurance

Universität Rostock, 2007

Abstract: In considering life insurance contracts, durational effects may appear at two levels. The first is concerned with the underlying biometrical risk, meaning that dependencies of transition probabilities on the previous duration in a certain state can be observed. Secondly, there is a need for duration-depending actuarial payments. The model presented here, based on semi-Markov processes, allows one to directly model dependencies on the previous duration. Relying on real data, numerical examples dealing with disability insurance as well as German private health insurance outline the impact of using duration-depending transition rates.

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