Universität Rostock, 2019
Abstract: In this study, two scenarios of hydropower generation were developed based on two scenarios of climate change, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (see Fifth Assessment Report, AR5 of IPCC). Simulation results of three future periods, 2019-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, were compared with the actual state (2006-2014). The results of modelling revealed that there will be a decrease in hydropower energy by about 15 % in the last decade of the 21st Century under RCP8.5 scenario. Based on RCP4.5, an increment of 8 % was simulated for 2019-2040. But in the last period it is with ca. 1 % negligible.
doctoral thesis free access